The Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) contract for NGAD is expected to be worth approximately $20 billion, although, across the life of the program, the company is in line to receive hundreds of billions of dollars in orders. Each copy of the jet, once series production commences, has been estimated in the past to cost upwards of $300 million. That is if the original concept for the aircraft has not changed.
A Lockheed Martin rendering of a notional sixth-generation combat jet. Lockheed Martin
The NGAD combat jet program evolved from plans for what was originally referred to as a Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA) platform, which emerged publicly in the mid-2010s. The PCA concept was an outgrowth of previous work the Air Force had done in cooperation with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). That includes the Aerospace Innovation Initiative, which was publicly announced in 2015 and produced at least one classified flying demonstrator design.
In contrast to previous fighter competitions, NGAD has been cloaked in secrecy from the outset. Indeed, for a long time, the Air Force didn’t even disclose which companies were in the running for NGAD.
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Boeing has recently suffered some notable setbacks in both its commercial and defense businesses. Trump had previously slammed the company over its contract to build two new Air Force One planes, which are running behind schedule. In the context of NGAD, however, the company’s entire future as a fighter-builder could be at stake. Notably, the company announced back in 2023 that it was going to shutter the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet line and indicated it would refocus in part on advanced combat jet efforts. The firm has made significant investments in its St. Louis, Missouri, facility to prepare it for sixth-generation fighter production. Boeing — alongside Northrop Grumman — is still in the running for the Navy’s F/A-XX. As for tactical jet production, Boeing is currently building F-15 Advanced Eagles and the Air Force’s T-7 jet trainer and will be for foreseeable future.
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Trump’s Air Force NGAD announcement comes at a time at which the president has been seeking to cut costs throughout the U.S. government, including slashing tens of billions of dollars from existing defense programs. NGAD has been a significant source of uncertainty over the past year, having been put on pause in May 2024 as the service reviewed its requirements amid concerns about the affordability of the aircraft, capability needs, and shifting priorities.
Ultimately, it seems the service’s need for a sixth-generation fighter in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict secured the future of the program.
“We tried a whole bunch of different options, and there was no more viable option than NGAD to achieve air superiority in this highly contested environment,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Joseph Kunkel, director of Force Design, Integration, and Wargaming within the office of the deputy chief of staff for Air Force Futures, said earlier this month.
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According to Trump, an experimental version of the F-47 “has secretly been flying for almost five years.” This is in line with the announcement of September 2020, from Dr. Will Roper, then Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, that a previously undisclosed NGAD demonstrator had begun flight testing. Since then, it’s been reported that at least three NGAD-related demonstrators have flown.
The president also announced an aspiration to have the F-47 enter series production before the end of his term in office, which ends in January 2029.
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Perhaps most surprisingly, Trump said that U.S. allies “are calling constantly” with a view to obtaining an export version of the NGAD fighter. He said that the United States would be selling them to “certain allies … perhaps toned-down versions. We’d like to tone them down about 10 percent which probably makes sense, because someday, maybe they’re not our allies, right?”
